The total registered volume of alumina warrants increased slightly, and the window for cash-and-carry arbitrage remained open [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on July 16

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at 3,175 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,187 yuan/mt, a low of 3,141 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,144 yuan/mt, down 16 yuan/mt or 0.49%, with an open interest of 243,000 lots.

Ore: As of July 15, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $73.6/mt, down $0.09/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $73.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; and the SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $61/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Basis Spread Report: According to SMM data, on July 15, the SMM alumina index had a premium of 24.66 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warrant Report: On July 15, the total registered alumina warrant volume increased by 2,111 mt from the previous trading day to 25,500 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in Shandong remained unchanged at 0 from the previous trading day, in Henan remained unchanged at 0 from the previous trading day, in Guangxi remained unchanged at 1,200 mt from the previous trading day, in Gansu remained unchanged at 0 from the previous trading day, and in Xinjiang increased by 2,111 mt from the previous trading day to 24,300 mt.

Overseas Market: As of July 15, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $366/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $22.15/mt. The USD/CNY selling rate was around 7.19. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately 3,234 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 64 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window remained closed.

Summary: In terms of the demand for raw materials in aluminum smelter production, the alumina supply is relatively loose. The operating capacity of alumina is nearly 88.5 million mt/year, while the combined annualized operating capacity demand for aluminum smelter production and net exports is approximately 86 million mt. According to SMM, the weekly inventory of alumina at aluminum smelters increased by about 22,000 mt MoM last week. However, after the alumina futures rose, the futures-to-spot arbitrage window opened, increasing the demand for delivery-grade alumina from futures-to-spot traders, with active inquiries. The alumina spot supply tightened, and suppliers refused to budge on prices. Under these circumstances, some high-premium transactions occurred, driving up spot prices. In the short term, alumina spot prices are expected to remain strong, with subsequent trends needing continuous monitoring of the total registered SHFE warrant volume and changes in alumina operating capacity.

[Other data, except for public information, are all processed by SMM based on public information, market exchanges, and relying on SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.]